Business Cycles Welcome! Business Cycles Welcome!


 

links and listening / Mid point time pattern - emailed to subscribers
Wed, 17 Nov 2010

Links and listening:
Strongly recommended viewing: Dr Michael Hudson, discussing recent Fed action
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article26768.htm

I'll bet you listen to this more than once, or at least re-hear parts.

On the subject of QE and banking, I happened upon a great presentation by a noted banking Professor in the UK, Richard Werner. Definitely NOT part of the establishment it would appear. I've posted it to the forum, if you wish to read it. Highly recommended, reasonably simple stuff, to help understand the banking / QE issues.

There is also some good discussion about Werner, and QE here:
http://www.the-free-lunch.blogspot.com/

QE is part of normal banking operations.

The fraud this time, well illustrated here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ssl5yb7FewA&feature=player_embedded

great 4 minute clip, don't miss it. For what happened last cycle, see Appendix 9 of Secret Life. The prior appendices to appendix 9 show up the 1974 cycle and before. Criminal behaviour, all of it. But since the crims are in charge of the jail, it's called rescuing the system. As I have said before, the best way to rob a bank is to own one.

In Secret Life, I chose mainly to go thru the banking issue with a land background, using the Canberra model and land rent / leasehold, since this was the stuff not being discussed. I could have put this in as well, the Australian Commonwealth Bank model. Put together by pretty much the same people who modeled leasehold Canberra, at the time. Politicians knew a thing or two back then, and were well versed in political economy. They have been substantially dumbed down since then:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ellen-brown/escaping-the-sovereign-de_b_669564.html?view=screen
"Escaping the sovereign debt trap; the remarkable model of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia"

To the market, Mid point patterns:
If you have a look back at past stock market patterns, it is very common to see good market turns November 5 to 8, each and every year. Seasonal dates, mid points between the solstice and equinox:

See here, for more:
http://www.businesscycles.biz/seasonal.htm

Mid points in time.

More often than not, this date, November 5 to 8, sees a high, from which we get a 30 or 45 day rundown, into December, higher lows, and then back up into January. Of course the shape of the market needs to be considered, as does the year of the decade, zero thru 9. This year, watch particularly the first week December for volatility (180 degrees from May / June 2010, and 30 weeks from May 7). We should expect higher lows, which should be a great way to confirm the passing of the current real estate cycle, 1992 through 2010, and then into the start of the next one, 2011. The stock market shape will tell us.

Remember, HIGHER lows formed on bad news, tells you things are improving.


© Business Cycles - Economic Indicator Services 2010 - Accurate real estate forecasting classes and services