Just How Good are the Fundamentals Anyway? Harris Scarfe Holdings Limited - May 2001
Directors and company managers get paid a lot of money - shareholders
money. They are responsible for many things, not least of which is the
sound management of the company, on behalf of you the shareholder.
This year has seen some company disasters; Waterwheel, Harris Scarfe, HIH
insurance to name a few. In all three cases, especially the first two,
published company figures and annual reports have proved, in hindsight, to
have been inaccurate, misleading and just plain wrong. Harris scarfe
Directors just recently found accounting irregularities going back half a
decade, of which they were not aware ! Waterwheel discovered, or rather
couldn't find, missing revenue. If Directors can't keep an eye on their
own front yard, what hope do we, the investor have. And what on earth were
the auditors doing ?
This is where charting knowledge is essential.
Responsibility for your investing lies with you. So any weapon in your
investment armory that sharpens the decision making is useful. I can
illustrate this in two ways using the HSL chart.
Say you did own the stock since 1997 or 1998. When the lows as highlighted
subsequently broke, that's really bearish, even more so because they broke
on large volume. Stop losses have to be taken here. If you did not own
the stock, but for some reason were having a look at the company for
possible investment, don't buy whilst price is below the moving averages.
Simple Gann theory, ie repeat runs, gave you an easy way to work out where
the next low is likely to be, when those important lows broke. One of the
reasons I have learnt to take stop losses confidently. (Took a few
learning experiences when I first started I can tell you - something every
trader comes to experience, and hopefully ends up a better trader as a
result) When the lows at 93 cents broke, that's really bad, moving to new
all time lows. Never hold a stock on such occasions. The problem is of
course though, the lower the stock goes, the harder it is to sell....
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