UGL - Weekly Chart - 10 May 2001
Note the break of lows late in 1999. If one had bought at any time before
this, that was the place to exercise a stop loss. Stop losses are required
to ensure your portfolio does not get filled with shares going south, to
preserve your capital so another better purchase can be found, and to
reduce stress (in the longer term) as you are not left holding
underperforming shares. Of course this is easy in hindsight, but that is
afterall how one learns. UGL continued down into year 2000; no need to
even consider looking at the coy again till that trend line broke. The
break of those lows is forecasting the future of course, and tells you to
expect bad news on the earnings front for this company; the break of the
lows is building in that news, in advance. (Dow theory).
It's at the point of the moving average crossover, 10 and 34 week mov. aves
in this instance, that the stock warrants closer inspection. Trend lines
could then be drawn linking lows and whilst price stays above moving aves
buying is possible. After that, you have to let time do its thing, be
patient, and exercise the stop loss if the chart proves non co-operative.
(stop loss $1.05 or there abouts. What I also like here is that there is
no overhead resistance to the continued up move at present till the stock
hits $2.25 (bottoms become tops - Gann) and the stock will pause here once
it reaches this price, a top, for subsequent retracement of the move up
currently underway.
further,
engineering is a cyclical business. Longer term, 5 year cycles are often
found, two per decade cycle. A move across every top I consider adding to
my original position, especially where a stock shows evidence of prior
trending, eg 1996 - 98.
From here, Gann followers would be looking for repeat runs, similar time
frames etc. March, June and October are key months for this company.
Home ----- Contact Us
|