I must say that after reviewing the market and the industry sectors, there
does seem to be a distinct lack of trading opportunities at present.
However on closer inspection, I have been able to identify some
opportunities which are worth investigating yourselves. Attached are the
sector charts and comments are below
First the energy index. With world oil prices reaching record levels it is
any wonder this sector is looking like a good one to invest in. What I have
found quite surprising however is the general lack of up-trending oil
stocks. Only two come to mind being, Woodside and Santos. A lot of this
must come down to the Australian oil stocks being hampered by a bad hedge
book position. This is where the company has been asked (forced) by the
banks to forward sell oil at prices of a year or two ago. The banks
required this in order to allow further borrowing by the company.
Unfortunately as most of this occurred several years ago, these companies
are now selling at prices well below current world oil prices. In most
instances this has been at around US$20 a barrel when the current prices
currently range between US$30-35. I believe there is further upside in
energy stocks and feel the energy index chart supports this view. Watch for
an imediate retracement to the midpoint followed by a bigger move up above
the 1636 high of September.
The Investment & Finance index looks interesting. Still in an uptrend
dispite the 3035 low in May this year. For absolute certainty, you should
wait for a breaking of the 3795 high in March this year but I think it is
looking strong. Watch for a repeat range of:-
2676 to 3795 = 1119 points
target = 3035 + 1119 = 4154 points
Transport index once again showing an up-trend is still intact. Again look
for a repeat range:-
5163 to 7167 = 2004 points
target = 6133 + 2004 = 8137 points
I think the Insurance index is still looking good. Notice it has now
reacted down off the 0.618 fibonacci level at approx 6300 points. Look for
a retracement back to 6300 level before the next move up.