Goodman Fielder GMF 10/2/00
An effective illustration of why I don't buy stocks trending down, nor try
to pick lows. A stock is never too low, to go lower. It is possible to
view here, the price at which support was withdrawn for GMF - underlined on
the chart. Note the increased volume on each break of the lows. Very
bearish.
Importantly, in January, it was announced GMF would be taken out of the top
50 index. One needs to follow changes to the indices. Fund managers
matching this index will be forced to dump the stock. The affect is
obvious.
In addition, previous tops at 1.40 (1995) have failed to hold. This adds
to the overall bearish scenario.
The on balance volume clearly reveals heavier volume on down days. Success
depends on finding shares trending up, not down, and in not trying to pick
lows.
my opinion; In these days of index investing by fund managers, the process
can become self fulfilling. The lower GMF goes, the less its market cap,
the less these fund managers need to hold, the more they sell. This
accentuates the trend.
From our point of view it becomes imperative to identify the trend.
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