PBL 1/5/00


PBL 1/5/00

Concentrating on the recent run down from $16.87 March 8 to $11.50 April 17, this occurred in 3 legs, as a good Elliott wave pattern: 292 (1687 - 1395) 295 (1495 - 1200) then 290 (1440 - 1150) (with a higher low / lower top in between this 3rd leg. (most unhelpful) We had a whole weekend to observe that Monday 17th April the market was going to open up weak and at lower levels. PBL around $11.75 on this day presents a trading opportunity if you are aware of past ranges, with appropriate stop loss and risk management rules.

That low on the 17th is called an island reversal. Of course you don't get confirmation until the market action of the following day. That is a strong bar reversal and could be expected to hold for thirty to sixty days minimum for at least a minor reversal of trend. I would expect PBL to at least move slowly back to the mid point of the larger rundown, $14.18, this month, before making its next move. If $11.50 breaks we are in a bear market.

PBL topped out on march 8, this is 2 days before Nasdaq on March 10. As Gann says, a leading stock therefore one to watch for assistance in forecasting the movement of other stocks. PBL is moving first.

There is also a head and shoulders at the top too. Lows at $14.00, left shoulder $16.00, right shoulder $15.00, (therefore sloping shoulders). A reversal pattern that rarely breaks in the short term. The completion of the head and shoulder pattern, the same time as the trend line broke, gave early warning of a further move down. Such trend lines are always marked on my chart as they form, extended out into the future on the chart itself.

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