It occurred to me just now, there is an interesting Kondratieff wave
aspect to current events. The K wave is a price wave. Each up move in
commodity prices in the past, on each up side of the wave, was fed by
two ideologies squaring off against one another. Kondratieff himself
called them 'wars of expansion'. The waring lasted years, and eventually
pushed commodity prices to a peak, which was the peak of the Kwave;
1800 - 1812 Napolean
1860's US civil war
1911 - 1919 WW I
1960's Vietnam
As you know in the cycles classes, I talked about how the same would
repeat, but was guessing that the ideologies might be US v China and the
various Taiwan disputes. But the current stuff (West versus Islam) is
looking decidedly repetative; and quite possible to last years, easily
15 years. The military spending is enormous already (chemical,
biological and armaments). Things could easily escalate into sustained
military spending here.