If you want a lesson in government granted licenses, see the chart for
Cazaly resources. (not attached here) They picked up a lease when Rio
forgot to renew it. All legal. Now the W.A. resources minister has
simply 'decided' to give it back to Rio. Shows what happens when the
government opens itself up to such influences. Government corruption
all stems from this process, as I show you in the cycles classes. Said
the Australian: "The dispute began in August when Rio missed a deadline
to renew the shovelanna lease, which it had held for nearly 30 years."
Interesting timing I note. It's almost always about the 'rent'. This
is the driving process. What the government giveth, the government can
taketh away.
for some reading:
http://www.stariq.com/MarketWeek.HTM
make of that what you will, who knows ? Remember, such sites are other
peoples opinions, and we don't trade other peoples opinions, do your own
work, plus trade good patterns, especially breaks into all time new
highs from a triangle. As such, when a break like that happens it
doesn't matter what the rest of the market is doing, just take the
pattern.
A minor stock market top in the current uptrend at this point would give
us another interesting timing aspect as well. From the ending of the
boom in 2000 to current is 6 years, 72 months, half of Gann's most
important number for his square of 144. A further 72 months takes us to
2012, always a good time of the decade for lows, and fits in with a
possible low for the real estate cycle. Just numbers at the moment.
But the similarities of events are impressive at such half way points:
2000, resource stocks turned internet mining, this year, internet
companies like C2 Global buying into commodities projects. It is all
about the rent.
We had a stock debut on the ASX last week, HFA Investments. This stock,
a hedge fund, if I understand it correctly, invests in other hedge funds
to produce "a low-risk, blended return." Mmmm. Hedge funds investing
in other hedge funds. Smells of a bubble coming, easy money around
presently.
As i said to you, it will all start to come out in the end:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/huge-fraud-exposed-in-iraq-contracts
/2006/05/01/1146335667610.html
i can confidently forecast, based on history, that this is only the tip
of the iceberg. In the next downturn - and rest assured there will be
another one sometime - when things start to get tight and dollars have
to be accounted for - that's when the proverbial will really start to
hit the fan. Even more so if there is a change of government in the US,
when much document destruction can be expected. But it is the eventual
downturn that will bring the ongoing corruption to the fore, not just a
change of government. Same as all past cycles. I note too, these
articles are never in the top ten most viewed articles at the Age, the
top ten being reserved mostly for articles that have far more emotion
involved (mine disaster), royalty or sex. Political corruption and
contract embezzlement, well we just expect it from big business
connected to government don't we ? We are what we read.
Which is why big businesses like young James' outfit Consolidated Press
continues to grab those casino licenses in Russia, China and elsewhere:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/golf/big-johns-monster-habit/2006/05/02
/1146335715480.html
Daly's honesty in confronting the problem would probably make him a very
good trader however. (If he took his stops...) He's on the wrong side
of those licenses though, is he not ? Visitors to casinos NEVER end up
rich. Same as the stock market. Short term visitors to there seldom end
up rich either. The stock market is not a Casino and requires hard
work, dedication, risk management skills and practice to master one's
emotions and invest / trade constructively. Gann said that too of course.
and this:
http://www.theage.com.au/news/technology/virtual-visions-of-real-estate
/2006/05/01/1146335641324.html
further commodifying land, easier and easier to trade in the government
granted license. It guarantee's future cycles as more countries enclose
that value, making it easier to trade in.
Speaking of which:
aet, down after the news, as almost always. The retrace, where to ? To
the mid point naturally. Check your chart. They didn't call Gann 'Mr
Mexican Pete' for nothing. Which is where I learnt it, as I delight in
showing those who attend the Gann classes.
He showed too, the best trades are those that break into all time new
highs, or those breaking upwards out of long term consolidation
patterns. (All time new highs are better.) So one could consider to
watch, say, oly for a trade into new highs, ecm for a break of long term
accumulation.
But never rely on other persons opinions, do your own study is best.
Then have the discipline to watch and wait. Otherwise you tie your
money up in stocks going nowhere.
Chart - ECM
Chart - OLY
