Oct notes - sent to subscribers - October 13th, 2002

A suggestion to go back and read the emails of 28/8 and 27/8.

7 months off the high of 7/3 has produced a good turn, as per repeating history. Early October was a date to watch for emotions running high (Washington and guns included, there is always something going on at these turns, though I never know what it will be). You can pick this up in Gann's trading examples given in 'Tunnel thru the air'; Gann was trading eclipses, specifically the quarter, and third points off eclipse dates, i.e. trading 90 day runs. Where there was a particularly notable eclipse astronomically, he forecast for more drama than usual. This appears to be worth the study to apply so far.

I would expect now a 15 day run to a lower top, 15 days being half of prior length of previous retracement, July 24 to Aug 24 or so, for a top Oct 25 potentially, (perhaps it is too much to ask that the price might be at the mid point of immediate past range on the 25th) 60d to Dec 28, being the date of the end of the repeat run down in time. Study Gann's illustrations of the Dow for 1929 and you will see what I mean.

It would be unlikely, rare, for the year's low to have occurred on the 10th of a month, not one of the dates we watch, though it is 210 degrees from March 7. Given the repeat history this provided as per past emails, it is tradable information for stocks, if they in turn are on interesting numbers.

One has to wonder about the Iraqi thing. Smokes and mirrors for November mid term US elections if you ask me. Always handy to have an enemy. By threatening war with Iraq, Bush has successfully occupied and split the Democrats with war talk, zapping their energy for other things, and taken all hint of presidential insider trading out of the papers. He is also attempting in my view to find a scapegoat for all that ills the US, declining markets, disappearance of you know who etc etc. I note the various reports in the International Herald Tribune this year so far;
- the owner of coy's that sold more equipment to Iraq than any other the past 5 years, Halliburton, when Cheney was chief
- the 1980's US govt provided satellite intelligence to Iraq, allowing that country to use its chemical weapons against Iran
- between 1978 and 1988, Iraq was supplied 7 times with anthrax strains by none other than the US.

I say this because:
Be aware, current US action is setting itself up for that country's next tops and bottoms. Watch the dates of any related actions, and you might get a forecast, though this may not necessarily be market tradable, I do it as a habit anyway. Helps with the thought processes.

One could well see a US diplomatic about face after November?

To Japan,
Bank of Japan will buy stocks from Japanese banks, and has urged the Japanese govt to write off all the Japanese bank bad loans using taxpayer funds. There's history again; loans on real estate, goes bad, taxpayers bailout the banks. Do you think we might ever see the opposite? Banks make good loans, make profit, give it all back to taxpayers.

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