A great (and rare) Australian book recommended by Steve Keen is The Secret Life of Real Estate, by Phillip J. Anderson. That book and Steve Keen's book, Debunking Economics: The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences, are both available on Amazon and are must reads for all. Anderson's book looks at 18-year cycles in real estate throughout the last two centuries and is simply the best book on long term real estate trends we have ever seen.
Harry S. Dent, jr.,
"Stock market slide. Bang on cue. Amazing! Well done!"
London, Jan 28, 2014, in response to the 2013 forecast. .
A brilliant interview with Dan.
Such an amazing summary bringing the real estate cycle and K wave together - very succinct.
Thanks for attaching the link. It's really appreciated.
Cheers, Cathy, Melbourne, October 2013.
In response to member email #70 for 2013, emailed to members October 26, 2013:
I have been suggesting the bullish outlook for some years; it should not be new to EIS members. I did a strategy session with Dan at Port Phillip Publishing earlier this year (March) discussing the bullish outlook. You can view that here if you have not seen it already:
A useful review of all the info.
Just wanted to say a big thx for these articles and weblinks. The paid subscription to your website is peanuts in relation to the
wealth of information on this website. The information you provide empowers an investor with an enlightened advantage in every facet of his/her investment plan,which can only bring untold financial rewards and superior decision making.
Sean - July 2013, Malaysia.
Kalís presentation last night was very worthwhile with tech issues to iron out. It really is fabulous that there is a group around EIS/you who have the freedom to develop & express their ideas. Itís something that is hard to capture in a promo kind of way Ė but is really a rare opportunity for intellectual freedom of a very meaningful nature. I think not knowing the exact outcome is what allows society & humanity to grow - & greatly appreciate you facilitating (& letting others assist) this.
Sydney, July 2013. .
Just finishing "The Traumatised Society" It is excellently written and such a thought provoking book!
So many questions come to mind from the brilliantly sculptured text! I hope I can meet Fred one day
Thank you for this wonderful service.
As a long term subscriber I have saved and made many thousands of dollars from the wisdom you have passed on regarding reading the economy and understanding the cycles.
I have been able to avoid and in fact profit from the GFC. Your predictions of moves in the Gold market have also proved very profitable.
Understanding the Property Cycle has enabled me to make very timely Property sales and purchases.
The ability to read the charts has also helped me to time locking in interest rates at low levels prior to huge rises from 2002 -2007.
Ian (Melbourne) 2013.
I am a new subscriber...
...I congratulate you on what you have done and the way in which you share your knowledge with others.
Roy, Australia, April 2013.
your recent email of March 6. This commentary it is very helpful (to me)
even though you told us in class. And thanks for repeating some things it is
critical for traders like me.
Thomas, Melbourne, March 2013.
Hi Phil, I trust you are well.
The Jan 4th 3-day class was illuminating and I really loved being there. Alan, your son, impressed me...its pretty amazing for a boy around 10 years old to present some of those concepts to a class. And of course, I was intrigued with your applications of cycles to trading. I really enjoyed talking to the other students in the class....I met some very interesting people. I learnt heaps from the Cashflow game (yes, it was my first game ever).
I hope you run another 3-day forecasting class at the start of 2014.
Anne, from New South Wales, March, 2013.
Your contents fantastic. I use it more for my real estate dealings rather than stock trading and it's a real help. Keep up the good work!
Melbourne, Feb 2013.
I really enjoyed the subscriber meeting of a couple of days ago...thank you
for facilitating this in such a friendly and supportive environment.
Mary, April 19th, 2012.
thanks for this, - email 32 for 2011 - fascinating.
Melbourne, January 2012.
I was looking at the 'past subscriber email' link this morning to find out if I had missed many. 25a...very interesting!
Brett, Ireland, Jan 2012.
My compliments of the Season to all the EIS folk. Please convey my good wishes to Phil.
I found his book meticulously presented, encouraging to see this project completed ... I'm convinced the events unfolding in this rarefied area of Financial 'Smoke & Mirrors' will provide him with sufficient material to write a sequel!
Regards & Blessings
plm, Canada. December 2011.
This class is fantastic,
"the right stock at the right time"
got alot out of it. Have to listen to it a few more times.
Damian, London, December 2011.
I have learned a lot from Phil's presentations, emails and the website. He has always been very generous in sharing the knowledge and insights acquired from his research, explaining the many influences on market movements and the fact that these movements can sometimes be forecast well in advance.
Best of all he is very approachable and easy to understand. Keep up the good work Phil!
Connie, Melbourne, December 2011.
Many thanks for this and all your emails. I am working my way through them, I find everything you write and send extremely interesting and knowledgeable. Thanks also for your time the other week in London, I found your presentation really useful and it was great to meet you in person.
Randeesh, London, May 2011.
The EIS website, with Phil's regular commentaries - both verbal and written - have enabled me to learn an enormous amount on the workings of markets, more so than I initially thought possible. It was a total mystery. Now, the knowledge I've gained has given me the confidence to actually enter into the share market and importantly, has motivated me to further explore what I can learn. The website is a fantastic guide and a great learning tool, a bit like an ongoing course.
Henry, Australia, April 2011.
I have been spending alot of time on the EIS website rereading emails
I have to say the resources and information available are outstanding.
The site is easy to get around and find what you are looking for.
The service EIS provides and also your availability to answer emails
is second to none.
I believe it is money well spent and mad if you trade and are not a
Congratulations to you!!!!
Ha could make a good testimonial
GB, Switzerland (and Australia), April 2011.
I'm loving your book and need to get another 3 copies to give as gifts.
I started researching the Kondratiev wave & there's so much information.
Cathy (April 2011)
comments from the March 15 2011 class, taken by gann trader and subscriber, Steve:
As I said last night Steve, fantastic presentation, really well-researched and well-presented.
Feedback from others in the room:
"Really enjoyed it."
"I often donít understand the complex subjects, but Steve presented it so clearly that Iím finally starting to get it."
"Agreed, such a simple and thorough explanation of what used to look like complicated analysis."
Glenn, Wed 16 Mar 2011
I attended last nights class and just had to let you know that it was the
best Tuesday class I have been to. Really enjoyable and informative.
Your passion for and knowledge of Gann and trading is just wonderful and
I'm so glad I signed up late last year as a subscriber.
I'm still new to all this though, so I have lots to learn and will let you
know as soon as i have made my first trade. I just wish I had more spare
time on my hands!!
Keep up the great work, it's greatly appreciated.
Peter, Melbourne, September 8, 2010.
I very much enjoyed the session last night, and will be subscribing to your service so I may attend some more. I have the language/technical skills to understand your methods, read in those areas for pleasure, and enjoyed that you obviously have access to data to play with. My Gann related study is slow, my astro is slow - history and economics is not bad. The other attendees that I saw were nicely serious. And I gained some new insights - which is excellent. eg I didn't realise Canberra was leasehold only !!. and I had been cooking the cycles wondering how each country hit the nodal cycle differently - apart from the natals - now I have the aha moment..
You must have already gained many accolades for your book - it fits well into my library. Right with 'Lords of Finance' and 'Traders, Guns and Money' !!
Linda, Melbourne, Australia, August 2010.
I have heard you speak several times, being a member of the ATAA and AIA, and most recently at the Melb AIA (9 Feb).
I find your research fantasic, intriguing and the kind of material I like to read. Last year after your ATAA talk, I purchased the The Secret Life of Real Estate book, which I hope to get autographed some time. I think you run a great service and only wish I had not procrastinated to join earlier.
Mathew, Melbourne, Feb 2010.
I attended a series of lectures by Phil Anderson in 2005. Always in the back of my mind was Phil's teaching of cycles and the downturn to come in 2007/8. Consequently after doing well I opted to take my funds out of the market totally in mid 2007 and just watch and wait.
Thanks Phil for teaching me about the real estate and financial cycles.
UK Financial Times, November 29, 2008
I want to say how much my colleagues and I enjoyed your presentation last week. [Gladstone Club, October 20, 2008]
Given the depressing nature of the current property market, we were surprised to feel
so positive coming out of your talk.
Following discussions with the team we feel this was because of :
1. your engaging and approachable delivery style.
2. Your impressive mastery of historical comparisons and use of
primary and secondary sources of evidence.
3. The optimism with which you ended the talk which got everyone focused
on the potential opportunities that will present themselves in the coming years.
Thanks to the insight you provided, I can say with some assurance that I will be
better prepared for those opportunities when they come.
Hi from the Mac guy in Melbourne - remember me?
I first did a charting course with you in 1999 and then a property cycles course with you in about 02 I think.
Over the last 18 months, I've often thought of your ability to predict the future by looking in the past.
In fact, every time I've read the morning papers.
I hope you're well and surviving the rocky road.
Let's hope you take your own advice.
I think you're a genius man!
Email of October 31, 2008. (Used with permission)
I believe you merit a big 'tick' for this one, i.e. 84 months out from S11? Well done!
Now, to get ourselves out of the s-t, eh?
Land Values Research Group
Melbourne September 2008
Fred's book is scarily prophetic. You have been talking about this for as long as I've been your student.
Melbourne September 2008
How are you going? Now, where's all that chest-beating I-told-you-so bravado? Yet again you pick a top in the market, July 20th, clever boy. Not sure how aware of things in Oz you are but there are some very worrying signs re property trusts/property investment vehicles offering very high returns which are falling over left right and centre. Another sign on market exuberance reaching the top perhaps. Also, that thumping great Al burq tower in Dubai is now making news at 550m plus and climbing.
Would love a general market update email from you just in case you have any more thoughts on an October correction.
July 24, 2007
By the way, I really enjoy the Tuesday night classes you run, and I'm sure
they will be even better after doing the Gann class.
Melbourne, (February, 2010)
Last year I attended Phil's forecasting workshop [ Feb 8th, 2009, http://www.businesscycles.biz/subscriber/pastrecording6.htm ] where he suggested there were very good Gann reasons for the market to bottom in March 2009. His foresight is taught via historical indices charts, major news events and Gann cycles. The class was easy to understand; clear, direct and concise.
Melbourne, January, 2010
I want to thank you for your book which I purchased soon after you released
it but it took me quite some time to get through it. I consider it has made
me a part economist, hopefully the part which can understand how money flows
and why the impacts, I have never understood and now with the help of
your book I feel I have an appreciation. Bull and Bear markets now make a
lot more sense. The history aspect was a great read and held me captivated.
Congratulations on your achievement.
(Adelaide, Australia), January 2010
Btw, if you ever look at the average incomes of occupations, newsletter
publishers are often up there. It's one of the most elegant business
models going, and sometimes the work done in them is the most important
in terms of what causes change in society. Many revolutions would never
have happened without the 'pamphleteers.'
So, on the whole I consider newsletter publishers to be some of the
sharpest people around... And in saying that, I consider your newsletter to be of the highest
quality content going.
Good one, should see you at Ross House.
A great call.
May 2009, in reference to email #17, emailed to subscribers April 30, 2009:
First up, general economic and social conditions...
The flu.... here is what I said one year ago:
two years ago:
already today a comparison to the Spanish flu, of, guess what, 90 years ago:
The future is but a repetition of the past. Gann rediscovered that this WILL happen in set time frames.....
I initially attended Phil Anderson's 'Intro to the Share Market' course back in late 1999 and subsequently have attend a number of his courses and seminars. Phil's passion in economics, in particular property cycles and share trading, has provided me with an insight into the bigger economic picture and a better understanding of the macro/micro economic cycles, such that I feel more confident knowing where we are in the cycle/s. Phil's teaching has awakened me to a level of understanding unknown to me before. Although my main interest is property cycles, through Phil's teaching on Gann, I have also gained an eagerness in share trading and a better understanding on how to profit in the market.
Phil Anderson is quiet achiever with great information and research on economic matters. Those who know of his work are not disappointed. Additionally, his teaching is very informative and he has a way of putting fun back into the topic of economics.
from Melbourne, 2008
As always, I've been enjoying your emails - fascinating to watch it all unfold, as you foretold.
Melbourne, January 2008
With little knowledge in the financial market, I first attended Phil's
"Introduction to the Share Market" course in 1999 and later in 2000, the
"Gann Theory" which captured my imagination. It has opened a completely
new world for me and has improved my life style. I have personally come
to know many of his students who have become very successful and
Over the years, he has kept us informed and educated on past, current
and future market aspects with his unique perspective and insights,
always so passionate, always so unselfishly. His emails are of great
interest to follow, often with such helping hands to our share trading.
I met Phil Anderson in the late 1990's when I sat his short course on Introduction to the Stock Market, Fundamental Analysis. On the last day after finishing, Phil spoke to the class to let them know about another course that he only held once a year. This was his specialty and it was to do with technical analysis, long term cycles, and how to forecast future market movements.
This intrigued me because all the so called experts say that the markets are random and that it's not possible to forecast them. Well many years have passed since then and I must say that I don't think I have seen anyone who can forecast the markets like Phil Anderson.
What I was most impressed with was the fact that Phil makes his money from trading the markets, not teaching people. Also his ability to impart his knowledge to others is excellent, and his obvious commitment to his students is unquestionable.
What Phil has taught me over the years has been invaluable. I took what Phil showed me and proved it to myself that you can forecast market movements. Those with foreknowledge will profit, and that's what it is all about.
On many occasions I have experienced first hand Phil Anderson's ability to forecast the markets with extreme accuracy. During 2006 Phil and I were going over a few things and he laid out his forecast for the SPI (Australian Market). With a good 6 months lead time he forecast the high on the SPI for the year. This forecast was extremely accurate as the SPI turned on the exact day that Phil had said and the price was just about spot on as well. Now you can't get much closer than that.
I couldn't have asked for a better teacher.
I first met Phil in 1997, well before the tech boom of the late 1990's and thus prior to the hype that engulfed the market at the time. What impressed me so much about Phil's approach to trading the market was based not on how much money you could make but rather understanding how the market reacts to news, what drives people's actions and how that translates into movements in the market. The technical understanding and approach that Phil imparts through his classes and website have been incredibly invaluable to me in trading the market. I'm not a day trader, just a family man who likes to make some money on the side and above all is enthralled by how accurate Phil's analysis and predictions of share market movements can be. It's important to remember that the techniques that EIS train you in are not about fortune telling or magic. It's about improving the odds in your favour for trading the market, understanding when it is most likely the best time to invest, hold or sell your shares. It never ceases to amaze me how I read about a buy/sell recommendation in the newspaper and think about what Phil has taught me to look for in the charts or even just how a company is reported in the news and thus only to find the share price move in the opposite direction to the recommendation of the newspaper/financial journal or even my own stockbroker! Charts of daily/weekly/monthly share prices are fact, not fiction, and when you learn to understand how to see trends, look for repeating patterns in price movement or time frames you will be amazed how some shares will behave in very similar patterns sometimes over weeks, sometimes many months but it is this understanding that narrows the odds in your favour of trading successfully & profitably.
G D Smyth,
Phil Anderson's comprehensive research and trading experience has guided my introduction to the work of legendary stock trader W D Gann resulting in a quantifiable competitive advantage in trading the Australian stock market. Phil Anderson's analysis of history and insights into the business and housing cycles over the last decade have positively assisted in my corporate and life planning.
St Kilda, Australia
As a victim of "The recession we had to have" in the early 90's I vividly remember the ridiculous house prices whilst trying to secure a home of my own.
I have always been interested in trying to understand the mechanics of a property cycle but never knew where to start.
The opportunity came for me in 2005 when Phil Anderson conducted a property cycle seminar. I was absolutely blown away with the wealth of information and the referral of books to substantiate his research which I myself have found to be an absolute eye opener, which I am sure would also be for others who wish to gain an insight into the property cycle.
Great minds pioneer, innovate and lead the way. Phil Anderson is indeed one such rare breed. I regard him to be World Class in the field of Real Estate and Land Cycles, a true Thomas Edison in this field. Whilst most so called 'experts' are lost in the fog of information, I have found Phil to confidently and decisively pave the way.
Truly fortunate are those who are "awakened" by Phil's works. It takes a remarkable life to contemplate the enormous endeavour to integrate knowledge of Land Values and Financial Market Cycles. Phil does this with the elegance of a true genius. It feels almost unfair to possess the advantage that which Phil so generously shares.
With intelligent application, this organised knowledge is literally a "Government Granted Licence" in itself. History teaches us that ignorance is at ones own peril, transcending this is now your choice.
Yes you did and we saw it happen well done.
We've been tracking your history, tips and suggestions and emails since
classes those many years ago and watched as the tallest building along
Southbank was built and voilŠ the crash came expectantly as well as other
things. Great Work Phil. Keep it up.
In response to an email to subscribers August 12 2007:
tall and growing:
I just love the synchronicity: the building did I believe become the
"tallest" structure on July 21, same time as the stock markets peaked
for this year. I still think that the finish of this building is highly
likely to mark the peak - and passing - of this cycle's world real
estate bubble, see
for more, and for the reasons why. It's a wait and see now, the
symbolism looks good so far... But of course I told you that ten years
ago, did I not ?
I am reading "Truth of the stocktape" for the third time and I am still finding new things and
understand bits that I missed the first and second time.
Interesting times on the stock market. So far it all seems to match the
theory - both Gann's book and your predictions.
"[Fred Harrison] does make a case for the existence of an 18-year business cycle, which he links to speculation in the property market."
Financial Times, London, April 2005 .
"For anyone seeking to understand the vagaries of the housing market, this is a fascinating read."
Sunday Telegraph, London, in writing about Harrison's book Boom / Bust.
"A well-deserved reward for your years of dedication and effort, Fred. Many congratulations!"
Mason Gaffney PhD,
Professor of Economics, University of California (Riverside), sent in relation to recent Sunday Mail articles, viewable here.
"Saw you speak a few weeks ago at Shell house (Melbourne, ATAA, Jan 24, 2008) .. always a pleasure to listen to you."
"Fasinating, and pretty comical too. You obviously put a lot of time into this and it feels like sitting on a chair like a tennis umpire watching things unfold. Well done."
(Diggerdriver) in London, upon gaining access to the web site after the London presentation by EIS.