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This site will teach you exactly how the economy works, and why. No other site in the world can teach you what you will learn within these pages.
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Economic Indicator Services started as an economic consultancy, requested first to investigate the economic effect of local government rating (property taxation).
This research confirmed for us the importance of land, having been extraordinarily lucky enough to have already been alerted to this fact after discovering Fred Harrison's book The Power in the Land a short time before the rating research was started.
Around the same time (early 90's) EIS, as a result of some active and initially not-so-profitable stock market trading, wondered why commodity prices seemed to fluctuate so often and so violently, not to mention stock prices as well.
We did the commodities bit first, leading to an intensive study of the so-called Kondratieff wave effect. This we published progressively from 1994. You can see that the forecast was for big commodity price lows between 1998 and 2003, a Kondratieff wave trough. After that, 25 years of prices trending up.
Why the stock market fluctuated so much proved a little more daunting. Nevertheless, to our ever undying gratitude and eternal thanks, in 1991 someone put under our nose a copy of W. D. Gann's Truth of the Stock Tape. "Trade the trend, and time will call the turns", said Gann, and it does.
Stock Market Research:
Delivery of all the research, using in the beginning a most trusted Mac, began in 1996, via "The Indicator". All the old forecasts are up there, warts and all, however, the first 1996 stuff has not proved retrievable at the present time. Research then focussed on the Decade cycle. There is historical evidence to suggest two clear decade cycles turning within each real estate cycle.
Newer technology saw the delivery method of research change from paper publication to electronic, via email service. (EIS had an email account by 1994: hard to forget handing out business cards in classes to the question "What's this phil@ glasswings mean.... those were the days.)
From time to time, the occasional conference speech was requested.
From mid 1999, we were involved with the Stockford float on the Australian stock exchange that in the end did not go so well, but took up an inordinate amount of time. Hence the forecasting workload slackened at this time and was delivered on email. After the float did not live up to expectations, Phil retired to France to research material all about US real estate cycles.
(2008 the book is now published: The Secret Life of Real Estate.)
By 2005, it seemed only natural that with Phil Anderson's stock market and US real estate research, and Fred Harrison's 18-year UK property thesis, the two should get together to further their studies.
(2010: Which we did, from 2006 through 2009.)
Harrison's original argument for an average 18-year property cycle is alive and well. This is the major, and most important economic cycle. The 2010 real estate led downturn, which he alerted us to in 1997 looks right on target.
(Update May 2010: Well that's exactly what we got; yet another 18-year real estate downturn, scheduled to trough in the US this year, 2010)
Along the way, EIS developed - or built upon - some interesting economic indicators to know where the economy has been, where we are in the current cycle, help forecast future economic activity, and most important, teach our subscribers how to profit from it all.
This is the only site on the web with such material. You can't find it anywhere else. We continue to urge subscribers to view history in 18-year real estate 'segments'.
We introduced our site to you with the words: "This site will teach you exactly how the economy works, and why. No other site in the world can teach you what you can learn within these pages."
This is exactly what current and past subscribers have found. So here is the EIS guarantee to you:
If, as a new subscriber, and within one month, you find that for yourself the material on this site has not been at all useful, EIS will, without question, refund your subscription.
A subscription brings:
- access to all of the non-public part or the site,
- access to current forecasts,
- receipt of our email update service,
- ability to directly ask questions of both Phil and Fred,
- a huge lift in your understanding of how the economy works, and,
- if past subscribers are any guide, a vast improvement in your ability to profit from this knowledge.
Email a question
5 minute history of EIS and how to study the cycles, to the Australia in the
Red / Dan Denning conference